Texas Senate Race Is a Dead Heat: Talarico and Paxton Tied at 49% in New Fox News Poll
The survey shows a state that hasn't gone blue in a statewide race in 30 years suddenly hosting one of the most competitive Senate contests in the country.
AUSTIN, Texas — Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 30 years, but a new Fox News poll finds the race to succeed retiring Sen. John Cornyn is a dead heat: Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are tied at 49% among likely voters.
The tie marks a shift from last month, when Talarico led by 2 points (51%-49%). The movement reflects Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women, and voters who backed Cornyn in the GOP primary — even as Paxton, the Trump-backed candidate, remains underwater on personal favorability (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable) while Talarico is net positive by 1 point.
Demographics tell the story of a coalition in motion. Talarico leads by wide margins among Black voters (+65), urban voters (+29), voters under 30 (+28), and college-educated women (+23). Paxton's strongest groups are White evangelical Christians (+52), White men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21), and voters 65 and older (+18).
Hispanic voters — who backed Biden by 25 points in 2020 and Trump by 1 in 2024 — are swinging back toward the Democrats, now favoring Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) and preferring Democratic control of the Senate by 29.
Even with the Senate race tied, Texans still favor Republicans for Senate control overall by 4 points (51%-47%), up from +1 in September. And an enthusiasm gap persists in Democrats' favor: 69% of Democrats say they're extremely interested in this year's election, versus 61% of Republicans.
“The race is going to come down to two basic questions,” Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, told Fox. “Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?”
The poll also tests the limits of Trump's pull: he won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, but his job rating in the state is now underwater by 9 points (45% approve, 54% disapprove). Still, 13% of Trump disapprovers back Paxton — a reminder that ticket-splitting, not straight-party loyalty, may decide the race.
Reporting by Fox News. Read the original report: Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish.
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